Murray’s Margin of Error

Patrick Murray is the founding director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute. According to their website, “The Monmouth University Polling Institute has become a premier independent survey research center known for its in-depth tracking of public policy and quality of life issues.”

Murray is a frequent media commentator on politics and public opinion---in fact, one of the folks that PolitickerNJ.com asked the opinion of each week to see which gubernatorial candidate “Won The Week”. PolitickerNJ.com named him one of 14 People to Watch in New Jersey Politics in 2009. He’s got a fancy looking website, with all sorts of numbers and names, graphs and graphics, statistics and such. Polling Institute director Patrick Murray appears regularly on One-on-One with Steve Adubato, and is a frequent guest on all the shows that cover NJ political scene.

Furthermore, according to their website, “The Monmouth University Poll’s standard methodology utilizes a random digit dial (RDD) ‘probability’ sampling design to select survey participants. All telephone exchanges (i.e., area code and first three digits of the phone number) that reach a household are programmed into a computer…after interviewing is complete, the sample is ‘weighted’ to correct for the fact that some respondents are harder to reach than others…. The Monmouth University Poll either tracks or adjusts for geography, gender, race, age, and education to comport with current U.S. census figures of the adult population. This weighting ensures that findings from a sample can be generalized to the full target population.”

One would think that Mr. Murray could predict anything with extreme accuracy, given all the fancy degrees, computers, and statistics training.

But wait, there is this catch-all disclaimer on all the surveys: “All surveys are subject to ‘sampling error’ ”----you know, that “plus or minus” number at the end of the poll that tells you just how much they could be off by. “This poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 3%” or so is what you’ll hear.

Now, my background---I am just an old, bald, overweight comedian from Brooklyn, with no fancy statistics degree. I don’t have an extravagant office at Monmouth University. I am not on NJN or ‘One on One with Steve Adubato’ each week. I was not named one of PolitickerNJ’s ‘most important’ anything last year or this year. And the same will most likely be the case for next year.

My methods for predicting the results of a contest between two (or more) does not require me to spend hours and hours bothering people of all ages by phone at dinner time, and then weighting the results ‘cause I could not get enough of one type of folk or another.

I just go by my instincts. That’s right—from the gut. My keen insight. My unique sixth sense. And that insight told me the Yanks in Six.

With all his fancy training, stats, and phone calls—what was Murray’s prediction?

That the Phillies repeat.

I guess that would be a margin of error of ---“plus or minus 100%” percent.

“I was looking at the World Series through (Phillies)red-colored glasses,” opined Mr. Murray, paying off on our bet. The result: one hundred dollars from his pocket to the Hole-in-the-Wall Gang Camps for kids with cancer. And he will be sending on a jar of honey to me, too. How sweet it is.

So, the lesson: If you want accurate predictions of who will win political races in NJ, stick with Murray. (I predicted Jon Corzine by 3 points).

However, if you wish to predict the winner of any World Series where the Yankees play the Phillies, call me.

If anyone else want to donate to the Hole-in-the-Wall Gang Camps for kids with cancer, go to www.jumpforjoey.org and follow the links.

"A Keg tapped at both ends." Well, it's time to tap back.

So, there you have it:

Cheese Steak vs. Hot Dog. South Bronx vs. South Philly. The Hudson vs. The Delaware. The City That Never Sleeps vs. The City of Brotherly Love. The Statue of Liberty vs. The Liberty Bell. Philadelphia Daily News vs. The New York Daily News.

Where WC Fields once said, “I once spent a year in Philadelphia, I think it was on a Sunday. ” And Jay Leno once said, “The crime problem in New York is getting really serious. The other day the Statue of Liberty had both hands up. ”

And just where is New Jersey with all of this? Just as Ben Franklin said, “A keg tapped at both ends”.

Well, it’s time to tap back.

What state will NY Yankees fans and Phillies fans have to pass through? Us. What roads will they have to travel on to get to their respective stadiums between now and next weekend? Ours. Which bathrooms will they be using if they drink too beer much at a game? Which gas stations will they use to fill up their tanks? Ours, that’s whose. Forget ‘Pay to Play’:

New Rule: “Pay to Pass Through.”

Set up EZPass to detect the Phillies ‘P’ and the Yankees ‘NY’ and quadruple the tolls. Charge them to use the bathrooms. If a Yankees and/or Phillies fans stops here for gas, charge’em a ‘pump your own gas’ surcharge. If they stop to eat in a NJ restaurant, add a World Series travel fee.

We have state debt in New Jersey, and now’s our shot to have help from Yankees and/or Phillies fans pay it down.

So, raise your beer to Ben Franklin: He had the right idea. He was just a century or two too early. And just had no way to pay for it.

(In the interest of complete disclosure, Ben would have most likely been a Phillies fan, where as I am a life-long Yankees fan. Prediction: Yanks in six.)

I Am New Genius

Over the past year, due to the illness of a family member, I had not been as involved in the local politics of my hometown of Flemington, as I would have liked. So this year, with the gubernatorial race in full throttle as well as local Council races needing a helping hand, I went to a local meeting of Democrats in Hunterdon County.

Now, the thing about Democrats in Hunterdon County is this: they are very dedicated souls, and true ‘blue’ to the core. If you’re a Democrat in this very Republican County, you’re REALLY a Democrat. There is no reason to be a Democrat here except for a true belief on the party of Wilson, Roosevelt, Kennedy, and Clinton.

Such is the case with Reyna and Irving Zelinsky. Great Democrats, always willing to help canvass, donate, host events, and phone bank during election time. I called upon them a lot, and they never say ‘no’.

The Zelinskys, now both American citizens, were originally from Czechoslovakia coming here as a couple in the 60s, forty years ago. They both speak English now, albeit with a Czechoslovakian accent. I met this couple about six years ago during a local Flemington campaign, when they asked me for help with a Motor Vehicle Commission matter. Seems that when they moved from NYC to New Jersey, there was some issue with switching Irving’s drivers license. He was getting the runaround in both New Jersey and New York, and was very frustrated. I made a few phone calls to both offices, and was able straighten out a simple bureaucratic mess. And we became friends through politics.

Upon my arrival at the meeting, I was very glad to see the Zelinskys. I had not seen them much in the last year or so, and was glad to run into them at this party meeting at the home of the local Democratic chair. Reyna and Irving never failed to call me “Mr. Novick”, and my ongoing joke was, “Mr. Novick, that’s my father. Call me Joey.”

Hugs all around, and Reyna says to me in her Czechoslovakian-accented English, “Mister Novick! How are you? I’m glad you’re here.” I make my usual joke, and say hello to Irving, too.

Then Reyna continues, “Mr. Novick, I missed you. Your new genius. I was just talking Irving the other day. I miss your new genius come election time.”

Well, I was very moved by this seemingly very moving complement. I've worked hard on elections, won more than I lost in this very Republican town, but never thought of myself as a ‘genius’. I attributed the term ‘new genius’ to her sometime misunderstanding of American idiomatic expressions. However, I thanked her anyway.

“Reyna, that is very kind of you, but we all work hard on elections in order to win. I am hardly a ‘genius’ or a ‘new genius’. I learn from everybody…I”.

Then she interrupts me and asks, “What are you mean ‘genius’? What?”

I am uncomfortable at her question, but try to laugh it off. “I think we are all geniuses—when we are working hard…”. Just then she turns to her husband, and she says something in her native language. He says something back, and they both start laughing together. Irving, laughing, tries to explain.

“Mr. Novick, Reyna didn’t say ‘new genius’. She said she misses your (he pauses to speak slowly)…she misses, we miss your ‘nudgey-ness’. The way during election time you call for meeting. You call for phone banks. Put sign up. Everyday you call. Help out with seniors. Help out at office. You’re a nudge. Your nudgey-ness. This we missed. Nudgey-ness.”

I smile, laugh and thank them again. However, I am humbled.

But, I know in my heart that one does have to be somewhat of a genius out here in Hunterdon to win as a Democrat, be a nudge, and still keep your sense of humor.

And make new friends like the Zelinskys.

GOP Recruits Serena Williams to Run for Congress After Profane Outburst.

"This is our kind of candidate we need running for Congress", says RNC Chairman Michael Steele.

"Can you imagine her at the next State of the Union address? Oba...ma won't be able to handle the 'F%#K Y%u!' she uses in her serves, or the 'A##hole!' she has in her baseline game. He's toast!"

Manners of the Members and the Top Eight Rejected Obama Heckle Response

Congressman Joe Wilson may be number one in South Carolina’s 2nd district, but Wednesday he clearly stepped in Number Two. If you heckle the president during a speech and you’re not a Congressman, you’ll usually be removed by Capitol Building police. However, if you are a member of the House, your behavior will only help your opponent raise money.

Wilson’s likely Democratic opponent has raised nearly $200,000 per word. Thus according to www.examiner.com, “Cash is still pouring in for Rob Miller, the Iraq war veteran and Democrat poised to challenge the infamously uncouth South Carolina Republican Joe Miller in next year’s House election.”

This is a great fundraising idea. Put President Obama on tour ---“Go ahead: Call Me A Liar 2009”----speaking in close districts where there is a Republican Congressman. Get the Congressman to call Obama names, and then watch the campaign contributions roll in.

Update: Not to be outdone, after Joe Wilson shouted out “You lie!”, California Congressman Jerry Lewis yelled out “Hey, Lady!”, and New Jersey’s own Rush Holt, yelled out an explanation of “the Unified Field Theory”

Top Eight Rejected Obama Heckle Responses: As a comedian, I have been periodically heckled in comedy clubs. It’s always good to have some responses in the can. Here are some that we know Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel suggested to President Obama, but the President wisely rejected:

1- “Obviously the Congressman is auditioning for Blue Collar Comedy Tour."

2- 'It's alright, folks, I remember the first time I had a beer.'

3- 'If I wanted to hear from an asshole, I would have farted.

4- 'Hey Congressman, so I guess there was no tractor pull tonight in South Carolina?

5- ‘Hey, Congressman. This is my job. I don't show up at your job and unplug the Slurpee machine.'

6- “Billions of sperm cells, and yours is the one that won.”

7- “Congressman, if I want anymore shit out of you, I’ll squeeze your head.

8- "I guess it’s true what they say about the South--it is a shame when cousins marry."

Recent crime reports have indicated two important trends in New Jersey: Violent crime is down; however, non-violent crime is up. Perhaps this second trend is directly attributable to the recently discovered driving record of gubernatorial candidate Chris Christie.

Mr. Christie has worked all summer trying to score points in the race for governor. And racing he has been doing: Between 1985 and 2000 Christie was found guilty on 10 tickets totaling 25 points on his license. Wonder what HIS insurance rates must be? Oh, I forgot ----at times, he has had no insurance, like at his stop in Lambertville.

So, that got me thinking---Christie is asking us to let him drive the New Jersey bus. But, would you trust him with your kids on a school bus? Is his driving record good enough for him to get a job driving a school bus in New Jersey?

Let’s see…if you go online, and Google ‘school bus driver’, you get hundreds of hits. So, there are plenty of jobs out there. I found one school in Old Bridge, with the following requirements:

• Current driver's license required with no more that 3 moving violations in past three years (no alcohol or drug related convictions)
• CPR and First Aid certification required
• 2+ years of experience transporting children highly desirable.

Christie has 25 points from 1985 to 2000----but none in the past three years. So, he is OK, there.

Don’t know if he is “CPR and First Aid certification required”. But when he got into an accident with a motorcycle rider, the rider did end up in the hospital. So, maybe Christie is not “CPR and First Aid certified”.

And finally, he does have experience driving kids around to ball games, etc. Thumbs up there.

When Christie down to give testimony to Congress over the summer, he left early because he had to take the train back. Perhaps he could have stayed longer had he driven down to DC. But with his driving record, maybe taking Amtrak was a good idea.

So, the jury is still out. Would you trust Chris Christie driving your kids in a school bus in the morning?

Wing Man: How I survived three days of Right-Wing peace, love and music.

Part One: Gorillas in the Missed

In the 1970s, Dian Fossey spent a great deal of time living in a habitat with mountain gorillas in Rwanda, in an effort to learn all about their way of life. She wanted to separate the truth about the mountain gorilla from the Hollywood "King Kong" myth of an aggressive, savage beast.

I was very inspired by her story, and so I decided to do the same thing. Just not with gorillas, though.

Last weekend, I spent three days of ‘peace, love and music’ with that very rare animal in New Jersey, the Republican-Conservative-Libertarian (herein after referred to as the ‘RCLs’). I wanted to separate the truth about the RCLs from the national political rhetorical myth of being passionless, humorless, narrow-minded, and not-very-bright politicos. Nothing could be further from the truth. Most are bright, spirited, passionate, insightful folks, whose values very largely differ from mine, as well as other Left of center Democrats. Oh, they have plenty of whackos, for sure. But ALL of the RCLs should be not defined by those whackos.

While the Daily Kos Netroots Nation conference was happening at the Westin Convention Center in downtown Pittsburgh, just across one of the Three Rivers, the Americans for Prosperity (AFP) were holding their own counter-conference---the RightOnline Conference. This is where, at the Station Square Sheraton Hotel, the RCLs gathered with their ilk for some information, inspiration, and instruction from the likes of commentator/blogger Michelle Malkin, economist Stephen Moore, Bush tax-cuts creator Grover Norquist, and (even) Joe The Plumber---just some of the aforementioned RCL whackos.

I decided to go for the full-tilt-boogie RCL experience: I traveled with them. I stayed in a hotel with them. I ate meals with them. I hung out in between sessions and ‘joked’ with them. Yes, that is right---

Contrary to popular belief; the RCLs do have a sense of humor. They cracked jokes about Gore (“Yup, he invented the Internet…..and Global Warming.”); President Obama (“The Anointed One even needs a teleprompter to take a dump.”); and the Netroots Nation people across the three rivers (“We can tell where the Left-Wingers

are---from the smoke haze above Pittsburgh---they’re all smoking dope, wearing tie-dye and singing ‘Kumbaya’”.) Well, maybe, that last observation is not too far off.

I rode with them on their AFP bus from New Jersey, leaving bright and early at 7am in Bordentown, NJ, and picking up several other Pennsylvania

RCLs along the way in King of Prussia. After that stop, we were on our way to Steel City. While I was disappointed that Mr. AFP-NJ himself ---Steve Lonegan ---was not on the bus, I was treated to a plethora of various RCLs of different species during the six-hour plus ride. Some were more CL than R. However, all seem to be pro-life, anti-marriage equality, anti-any tax, and all solid Reaganistas. And they were all on the bus to fight against health care, cap and trade, and any further bailouts.

I seem to ‘fit’ in just fine. Being fat, bald, and white-bearded, I seem to ‘blend’ in just fine. It did not hurt that I know many of the required RCL ‘buzz words’, and know my Constitution fairly well.

No one asked me about my politics----which I would have shared gladly. At one point, however, I was asked who I voted for in the presidential primary. I declared that “I hold my secret ballot sacred, but I will tell you one thing: I did not vote for John McCain.” Nodding knowingly, she said, "Neither did I."

Like out of a Hollywood casting call, there were RCLs of every shape and size. While the names here are not going to be changed to protect the innocent---these folks were hardily innocent---I will, respectfully, just use initials.

There was ‘M’, a very religious Evangelical Christian who carried a photo book of a trip he made to see Bush speak in New Jersey a few years back. In a conversation we had about the Iraq War.

He made to see Bush speak in New Jersey a few years back. In a conversation we had about the Iraq War. I asserted that I was opposed to the war (in part), because there was never a formal declaration of war under Article I, Section 8 of the Constitution. For that ‘infraction of conscience’, he actually reported me to the bus captain as being opposed to ‘peace through strength’. Really. More on 'M', later.

There was chain-smoking ‘R’, a newly elected Republican State Committee member, who was furious that his State Committee refused to adopt the Pro-Life/Anti-Gay RNC National Platform. There was ‘D’, a 40ish former media professional, who hated Affirmative Action, who asked me, “What’s the problem with those people? We have a black president? What else do those people want?”

There was ‘N’, a teacher who was a former Liberal Democrat (‘LibDem’ was the self-describing term she used), who was converted over the airwaves by the magic of Rush Limbaugh. She now argues regularly with her brother, a solid ‘LibDem’. She said she was in a quandary over his assertion that “healthcare is a right, like ‘police protection, and an education.’”

For the next twenty minutes we looked diligently at the Constitution copies we had been given, trying to figure the whole thing out.

I came up with the idea health care was a ‘right’ under the “promote the general welfare” assertion in the Preamble. And that the "cruel and unusual punishment" clause of the 8th Amendment to the Constitution had been interpreted by the Supreme Court to require prisoners, as part of their humane treatment during detention, to be guaranteed the right to health care under ESTELLE v. GAMBLE, 429, U.S. 97, 1976. “And certainly citizens have rights greater than that of prisoners,” I said, to which all nodded.

“...So, it must be a ‘right’. And, after all, what more important way to ‘promote the general welfare’ than promoting the ‘health’ of the populace. And it’s so important, the Founding Framers chose to put it up front.”

This did not sit well with ‘M’, the former LibDem. Fighting against government health care was the reason she was on this bus. I got that “Deer in the Headlights” look from her.

I would get that look periodically through the weekend from several other RCLs.

More later, in Part Two: Lonegan and the Conference.

Read ALL about what happened yesterday!

Here is the news round-up from Monday. Why waste your Monday looking at the news of the day, when you can relax and read it tomorrow:
News Roundup & Open Thread for Monday, Aug. 17, 2009